Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (99% NO). Large trader flow is active. Trading is very active today.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$9900.00 (+9900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability1.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: risingLiquidity: ALarge Trader Flow: ActiveMature market (278d)
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$1.5M
Liquidity$2.2M
Current Probability<1%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.7% → 1.6%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Phil Murphy faces a 1% nomination probability despite being New Jersey's governor, reflecting market consensus that he lacks the national profile and political momentum needed to compete in a crowded 2028 Democratic primary. His path to the nomination would require either major frontrunners to implode or a significant shift in his national visibility.