Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 82% NO. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$455.56 (+456%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability18.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.3%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: AInformed flowMature market (273d)
- Price moved +0.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$48K
Liquidity$733K
Current Probability18%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.5% → 1.1%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets28
AI Brief
JD Vance at 18% odds to win 2028 reflects investor skepticism about the VP's political viability, despite Trump backing. The 2028 election is still two years away with massive liquidity ($772K) suggesting this is a key Trump-era succession gauge; current low odds indicate markets see him as Trump's heir-in-name-only without independent voter appeal.