Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 83% NO. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$488.24 (+488%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability17.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.3%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: AInformed flowMature market (273d)
- Price moved -0.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$536K
Liquidity$411K
Current Probability17%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.5% → 1.1%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Newsom is a major Democratic figure with significant executive experience as California governor, but markets assess his 2028 general election prospects as weak at 17%, suggesting doubts about his appeal beyond the Democratic base or concerns about 2024 primary momentum loss. Volume of $478K and tight liquidity indicate active debate among traders over whether he'll even run or survive a primary.