Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (99% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$9900.00 (+9900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability1.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: ALarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice stable for 273 days
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$35K
Liquidity$1.1M
Current Probability<1%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.7% → 2.0%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets28
AI Brief
Elon Musk winning the 2028 presidency sits at 1%, correctly reflecting constitutional ineligibility (naturalized citizen requirement) and zero path to either party's nomination. The minimal price reflects pure tail-risk that laws could change or markets are miscalibrating extreme outlier odds.