Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: steadyLiquidity: ALarge Trader Flow: ActiveMature market (271d)
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$24K
Liquidity$565K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Trump is priced at just 2% odds to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, a stark underweight given his recent dominance of GOP polling and primary contests. The extreme discount suggests market skepticism about his viability by 2028, possibly factoring in legal and political risks. The 2028 primary season will definitively resolve this view.