Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 39% YES. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$156.41 (+156%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability39.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.9%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: AInformed flowMature market (273d)
- Price moved -0.9pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Price move: Price moved down to 38.8% from 39.4% baseline — 2% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$381K
Liquidity$316K
Current Probability39%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.7% → 1.2%
943 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets25
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3.2