Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (99% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$9900.00 (+9900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability1.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: coolingLiquidity: AInformed flowMature market (271d)
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$40K
Liquidity$581K
Current Probability<1%
Resolves in31mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
944 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Josh Hawley at 1% reflects his controversial record, limited national profile, and lack of viable coalition; markets essentially rule him out. The 2028 primary is the only catalyst.