Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 54% YES. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$85.19 (+85%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability54.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +1.0%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowMature market (270d)
- Price moved +1.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$28K
Liquidity$237K
Current Probability54%
Resolves in6mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
209 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
AI Brief
Democrats hold slight 53% odds to control the Senate after November 2026 midterms, a near coin-flip despite historical patterns favoring the party out of power. Strong liquidity ($190K) and recent +0.5% price movement suggest active trading on shifting polling as the election approaches. The catalyst is imminent—only six months until November 3, 2026.