About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (95% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1566.67 (+1567%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability6.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActiveMature market (258d)
- Price moved +0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$21K
Liquidity$35K
Current Probability6%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.0% → 1.5%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Trump pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell by end-2026 is at 6% despite her high-profile conviction, the market skeptical he'd issue this politically damaging pardon. With nine months to the deadline, low volume suggests limited belief in the scenario despite Trump's history of controversial clemency actions.