Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (95% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1900.00 (+1900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability5.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -1.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -1.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$42K
Liquidity$168K
Current Probability5%
Resolves in5mo
Low VolatilityVol: 10.9% → 5.3%
179 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Fernando Haddad at 5% YES for October 2026 Brazilian presidency suggests he enters as underdog against rightist challengers in a polarized field, with catalysts including upcoming economic data and campaign dynamics before the autumn vote.