Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 38% YES. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$163.16 (+163%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability38.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowMature market (202d)
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$17K
Liquidity$172K
Current Probability38%
Resolves in5mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.7% → 1.6%
179 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets13
AI Brief
Flávio Bolsonaro's 38% in Brazil's 2026 presidential race reflects a genuinely competitive three-way battle, with the Bolsonaro family member positioned as a serious contender despite lower odds than some rivals. October 4 vote is the imminent catalyst, just six months away, creating meaningful uncertainty. Recent price action flat suggests balanced positioning between bull and bear bettors.