Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO).
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$3233.33 (+3233%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability3.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$27K
Liquidity$74K
Current Probability3%
Resolves in5mo
Low VolatilityVol: 3.5% → 2.3%
179 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets10
AI Brief
Ronaldo Caiado faces long odds in Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, with markets pricing just a 2% chance of victory despite $64K in liquidity. The consensus reflects Caiado's minor status in a crowded field dominated by stronger candidates like Lula and Bolsonaro allies. Watch campaign momentum shifts and primary consolidations as the election approaches in six months.