About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Momentum is falling. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -1.4%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price moved -1.4pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$855
Liquidity$10K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 12.7% → 6.0%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets3
AI Brief
The market overwhelmingly rejects sub-$500B OpenAI IPO pricing, with 98% consensus that the AI leader will command a significantly higher valuation at debut. Sparse volume ($574) and minimal bear bets (3%) reflect market certainty; OpenAI at $500B would be seen as undershooting given its moat and adoption curve. Catalyst is the actual IPO launch in late June and broader macro/AI sentiment at that time.