About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 87% NO. Momentum is rising.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$669.23 (+669%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability13.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +4.0%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: CMixed flowMature market (197d)
- Price jumped +4.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: steady
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$536
Liquidity$15K
Current Probability13%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.3% → 1.4%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets3
AI Brief
Only 14% of traders expect OpenAI to hit $1.5T+ valuation on IPO day, signaling consensus that even this AI leader lands in the $500B–$1.5T sweet spot rather than hyperbolic valuations. The 5% 24h rally suggests mild optimism for the bull case, but 87% odds against reflect realistic expectations that IPO pricing avoids the extreme upside. Key drivers ahead: macro conditions, AI regulation trends, and peer valuations (xAI, Anthropic) through June.