About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Slight YES lean at 61%. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$63.93 (+64%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability61.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowMature market (197d)
- Price moved +0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$1K
Liquidity$8K
Current Probability61%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.9% → 1.2%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets2
AI Brief
This earlier-dated OpenAI IPO market (ending June 30) shows stronger conviction against a public debut, at 60% no-IPO odds versus the year-end market's 78%. The tighter timeline and recent 6.5% price decline suggest traders believe the company will remain private through H1 2026.