Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 75% NO. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$284.62 (+285%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability26.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +1.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowMature market (190d)
- Price moved +1.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$10K
Liquidity$80K
Current Probability26%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.9% → 1.7%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets12
AI Brief
One Fed rate cut trades at 25%, suggesting moderate risk of economic slowdown or cooling inflation forcing at least a single cut by December 2026. The +1% move in tandem with the 2-cut market indicates marginal belief in easier policy, but the 76% "no cut" probability dominates market thinking on rates.