Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The Fed rate cuts market is heavily skewed toward no action, with traders pricing just 5% odds of four or more cuts through year-end—reflecting market skepticism that inflation remains sticky and the Fed will maintain higher rates longer. The sharp 95% consensus against cuts suggests traders expect either continued inflation concerns or weak economic data to justify caution, though the flat 24h volume ($4.5K) indicates low conviction on a potential policy shift. Nearest catalysts are FOMC meetings and monthly CPI/employment reports that could nudge the Fed toward easing if growth stalls significantly.