Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 31% YES. Momentum is strong up. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$222.58 (+223%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability31.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +11.3%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price jumped +11.3pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$54K
Liquidity$19K
Current Probability31%
Resolves in6mo
Low VolatilityVol: 6.6% → 3.5%
209 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Tom Steyer at 27% for California Governor represents a credible longshot candidacy, with the +15% 24h surge suggesting new positive news or fundraising momentum shifted trader sentiment. He remains the underdog but has moved from fringe to semi-competitive odds in the midterm race.