Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -1.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -1.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$48K
Liquidity$51K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 6.6% → 3.5%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Any NATO member leaving by June 30 is at just 3% with 2.5 months to resolution, reflecting extreme market skepticism of withdrawal despite Trump's skepticism of the alliance. This low probability suggests the market believes formal NATO exit remains highly unlikely despite rhetoric, with no imminent catalyst to trigger member departure.