About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 42% YES. Predominantly retail flow.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$138.10 (+138%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability42.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +1.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CRetail pressurePrice forming
- Price moved +1.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Retail pressure observed
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$1K
Liquidity$9K
Current Probability42%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 3.2% → 2.2%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
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AI Brief
OpenAI's 2026 IPO odds remain contested at 42% YES, split between optimists seeing fast-track approval and skeptics expecting regulatory delays or founder preference for later timing. The recent +5% price move suggests growing bullish sentiment on near-term IPO odds. Key catalysts include regulatory clarity on AI governance and the company's reported $80B+ valuation discussions with new investors.