Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Slight YES lean at 61%. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$63.93 (+64%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability61.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +6.0%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: AInformed flowOutflowPrice stable for 154 days
- Price jumped +6.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$440K
Liquidity$272K
Current Probability61%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.3% → 1.8%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
The U.S. invasion of Iran is a near-coin-flip at 60%, suggesting meaningful market uncertainty about Trump administration military posture and regional escalation risk. Key drivers include recent Israeli actions, Iranian responses, and U.S. military positioning in the Middle East. Any major provocation or policy statement could swing prices sharply.