Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (91% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1011.11 (+1011%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability9.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.1%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$265
Liquidity$2K
Current Probability9%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 8.9% → 4.5%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets8
AI Brief
The 8% probability on Fed funds upper bound reaching 4.25% signals extremely low odds of further rate hikes before 2027, suggesting traders expect rates to either hold steady or begin cuts well before year-end. The 130 basis point move needed from current levels (typically ~5.3-5.5%) makes this a tail-risk trade, with any recession shock being the primary catalyst for a YES outcome.