About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (93% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1150.00 (+1150%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability8.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowMature market (135d)
- Price moved +0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$4K
Liquidity$61K
Current Probability8%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.0% → 1.3%
268 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets21
AI Brief
Bitcoin reaching $160,000 by year-end is priced at just 8% probability despite the extended 8-month runway, indicating traders view this extreme $70,000+ upside as highly speculative. Minimal liquidity and thin volume reflect low conviction in this moon-shot scenario.