Fed rate hike in 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 81% NO.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$426.32 (+426%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability19.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.5%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: CMixed flowMature market (118d)
- Price moved -0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$2K
Liquidity$40K
Current Probability19%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.7% → 1.6%
245 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Markets price a 19% chance of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026, suggesting a modest risk of re-acceleration in inflation or sustained economic strength. The 82% consensus against hiking reflects expectations for moderate easing, though a surprise inflation print or stronger-than-expected growth could trigger tightening. Key drivers are inflation trajectory and labor market resilience.