About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects YES (94%). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$6.38 (+6%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability94.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.5%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BInformed flowMature market (118d)
- Price moved -0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bullish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$3K
Liquidity$32K
Current Probability94%
Resolves in21mo
Low VolatilityVol: 0.2% → 1.0%
632 days until resolution. Price movements are small and increasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets6
AI Brief
94% are extremely confident SpaceX clears $1T on IPO, making this the highest-conviction price level across all markets. Falcon 9 dominance, Starship progress, and government contracts have created sufficient moat that traders treat sub-$1T as highly unlikely. This is the risk floor for the IPO.