The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, has faced repeated disruptions from Houthi-led shipping attacks since late 2023, threatening one of the world's most vital maritime routes. This prediction market asks whether the strait will be effectively closed by the end of May 2026, with closure defined as severe commercial restrictions rather than total physical blockade. Currently trading at 19% probability for YES, the market reflects moderate skepticism about a complete commercial shutdown in the near term, though regional volatility persists. Historical precedent suggests that when similar maritime incidents occur, shipping routes adapt through longer passages and alternative corridors rather than halting entirely. Current security measures and international maritime presence are expected to maintain some level of commerce despite ongoing threats. The 19% price implies traders believe these protective factors will prevent full closure by May 31. Recent developments in Houthi capabilities and regional intelligence could shift odds significantly before resolution. The market's outcome ultimately depends on how "effectively closed" is operationally defined—whether requiring zero traffic, near-zero volumes, or substantial decline relative to pre-disruption patterns.