Ethereum last reached its all-time high of $4,891 in November 2021, nearly five years ago. Since then, the cryptocurrency has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, including the significant 2024-2025 recovery phase. This prediction market asks whether Ethereum will break that historic record by September 30, 2026—approximately five and a half months from the contract launch. The current market odds sit at 12% YES, signaling trader skepticism about a new all-time high in this timeframe. At this 12% probability level, the market implies Ethereum requires a substantial rally to surpass its previous peak of $4,891, reflecting a cautious overall outlook compared to prior bull cycles where ATH breaches were more anticipated. The resolution criterion is clear-cut: the market settles YES if Ethereum's spot price on major exchanges such as Coinbase or Kraken reaches or exceeds $4,891 at any point before the September 30 deadline. Historically, Ethereum has surged during periods of macro risk-on sentiment and declining interest rate expectations. The current 12% odds trajectory reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability these conditions will align within the specified timeframe.