Iran's political system centers on its Supreme Leader position, the highest executive authority in the country's theocratic government structure. The current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has held the position since 1989. This prediction market tracks whether a leadership change—defined as the appointment of a new Supreme Leader or equivalent top executive authority—will occur by June 30, 2026. The event is resolvable through verified reporting from major international news outlets and official Iranian government statements, including state media and official succession announcements. A transition could occur through succession upon the death or incapacity of the current leader, or through other extraordinary political circumstances. At 16% YES odds, traders are pricing this as a relatively low-probability outcome over the next six months, reflecting current market assessments of political stability and existing succession mechanisms in Iran's theocratic system. The market odds imply roughly a one-in-six chance of transition within the resolution window. Recent price movements show periodic fluctuations in response to reports about the health and activities of the current leadership. The majority of trading volume indicates market participants expect the existing leadership structure to remain intact through the resolution date.