Iran's political system centers on the Supreme Leader, a constitutionally powerful position held for life without term limits. As of 2026, Ayatollah Khamenei has led the Islamic Republic for over three decades since 1989. This market tracks whether a formal leadership transition—meaning a new Supreme Leader assumes office—occurs by May 31, 2026. Such a change could result from succession, constitutional amendment, or institutional reorganization following unexpected circumstances. The 12% probability currently priced into this market indicates that participants assess the likelihood of rapid leadership change as low within this timeframe. Historically, Iranian leadership transitions occur through internal institutional processes rather than sudden public changes, and the base rate of such events remains relatively rare. Prediction markets on geopolitical topics aggregate information from traders, reflecting collective assessments of political stability, succession planning, and institutional dynamics. The relatively stable odds suggest market participants see no immediate catalyst driving near-term leadership change. As new information emerges about health, succession planning, or internal politics, market odds adjust to reflect updated expectations about whether formal leadership transition will occur before the deadline.