Iran qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Mexico and Canada as part of Group B. This market assesses the probability that FIFA will remove or ban Iran from the tournament by April 30, 2026. Such action could result from political sanctions, governance disputes, FIFA disciplinary measures, or rule changes. The current YES odds of 7% indicate removal is considered unlikely within this timeframe, though geopolitical factors remain inherently unpredictable. Historically, FIFA has occasionally imposed sanctions on nations, though complete World Cup removal is rare. The market reflects current expectations that Iran will participate unless extraordinary circumstances emerge. The April 30 deadline captures the pre-tournament window before competition begins in June 2026. Modest trading volume and narrow liquidity suggest limited market interest in this lower-probability outcome, which is typical for geopolitical scenarios in sports prediction markets. Any significant political escalation or surprise FIFA announcements could shift the market substantially.