The market is pricing a 12% chance that federal charges against James Comey are dropped by May 31, 2026, just over a month away. Comey, the former FBI director under the Obama administration who was terminated by President Trump in 2017, has faced significant legal scrutiny in recent years. The resolution depends on whether any pending federal charges are formally dismissed before the May 31 deadline. With just weeks remaining, the timeframe is compressed, which the 12% odds reflect. Comey's various legal proceedings have been subjects of ongoing investigation and litigation, but rapid dismissal would require unexpected movement in the judicial system. Market participants are expressing strong skepticism that charges will be dropped so soon, though legal outcomes can shift unexpectedly. The wide spread between YES and NO indicates trader conviction that the current legal trajectory will not result in dismissal by the deadline.
Deep dive — what moves this market
James Comey's path to legal jeopardy began with his prominent role as FBI director under President Obama. After his controversial firing by President Trump in May 2017—ostensibly over his handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation—Comey became a polarizing figure in American politics. His subsequent memoir, public testimony before Congress, and media appearances positioned him as a vocal Trump critic, exposing him to legal vulnerabilities on multiple fronts. The former FBI director has faced scrutiny related to classified information handling, interactions with the Justice Department, and questions about his official conduct during his tenure. Various investigations and litigation have ensued, involving both civil suits and potential criminal exposure.
For the YES scenario (charges dropped), several catalysts could theoretically force rapid dismissal. A prosecutorial decision to abandon charges would likely stem from legal weakness in the government's case, political pressure, or an unexpected judicial ruling. Comey's legal team has aggressively challenged the government's theories, and if courts rule in their favor on key motions, charges could be withdrawn. However, the 12% pricing suggests traders view these scenarios as highly unlikely within the May 31 window.
The NO scenario (charges persist) reflects the structural reality of federal litigation. Even with a compressed timeline, the legal system rarely moves fast enough to resolve all pending charges by an arbitrary deadline. Prosecutors typically have latitude to continue investigations unless there is a compelling reason for dismissal. The political environment also matters: with Trump returning to power and Comey positioned as a critic, prosecutors may feel emboldened to continue rather than abandon cases. Historical precedent shows that high-profile political legal matters often drag on for years rather than resolving in single-month windows.
The current 88% NO pricing reflects sophisticated trader conviction that the legal machinery does not operate on the market's timeline. Dismissal by May 31 would require either a sudden prosecutorial retreat or a dramatic judicial intervention, both relatively rare. The odds accurately price in the friction of the legal system and the political complexity surrounding Comey's situation. Traders are betting that established legal processes will continue beyond the deadline rather than abruptly conclude in May's final days.
What traders watch for
May 31 deadline: federal court must issue dismissal order or all charges drop; any legal delay past this date resolves market as NO.
DOJ prosecutorial decisions: changes in Justice Department leadership or policy shifts could influence dismissal likelihood in the final weeks.
Judicial rulings on motions: key court decisions on defense motions to dismiss could accelerate or significantly derail dismissal prospects.
Political environment: shifts in political pressure or public sentiment that might influence federal prosecutorial strategy and priorities.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if all federal charges against James Comey are formally dismissed by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. If any charges remain pending or are not fully dismissed by that deadline, the market resolves NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
