This market asks whether a James Comey mugshot will be publicly released by May 5, 2026 — just four days from now. The 2% YES odds reflect traders' strong skepticism that Comey will face criminal arrest and booking within this compressed timeframe. For a mugshot to emerge, Comey would need to be charged with a federal or state crime, arrested, and processed by law enforcement before the deadline. While Comey has faced sustained political scrutiny and ongoing investigations, the low odds pricing suggests the market sees no imminent arrest signals. The current probability implies traders expect normal political and legal processes to continue without a sudden indictment or arrest of the former FBI director in the next four days. This extremely short-dated market captures moment-to-moment expectations around potential legal developments.
Deep dive — what moves this market
James Comey served as FBI director from 2013 to May 2017, when President Trump dismissed him by memorandum while Comey was away from headquarters. That firing triggered the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller, whose investigation into Trump's 2016 campaign and potential obstruction of justice lasted nearly two years. Since leaving federal service, Comey has remained a polarizing political figure — celebrated by Trump critics as a stalwart of institutional independence and integrity, and vilified by Trump allies as biased, complicit in what they characterize as a politically motivated original investigation, and deserving of prosecution. Comey has worked as a private attorney, authored a bestselling memoir ('A Higher Loyalty'), and given speeches and media appearances on themes of democratic governance, institutional integrity, and norm-breaking in politics. His public profile has made him both a symbol and a lightning rod in post-2017 partisan debates. Republican-led Congressional inquiries and political figures have repeatedly called for investigations into Comey's conduct during the 2016 election cycle, his communications with Trump, and alleged bias within the FBI leadership during that period. For YES resolution, Comey would need to be indicted and arrested before May 5. This requires either a federal prosecutor or state attorney general to file criminal charges and have law enforcement serve and execute an arrest warrant. Potential scenarios might involve investigations into alleged FBI misconduct, conflicts of interest, or actions during the 2016 investigation. However, high-profile prosecutions of ex-government officials typically involve months of investigative legwork, grand jury proceedings, and prosecutorial review. The NO case dominates at 98% because no credible reports suggest an indictment is imminent. Threats of legal action against Comey have circulated for years without materializing into formal charges. Major arrests typically carry advance signals: leaked grand jury details, Congressional referrals, prosecutor statements, or investigative reports. The absence of such signs, plus the four-day deadline, makes sudden arrest seem highly improbable. The market's 2% odds reflect deep skepticism that legal process could move so quickly, and that charges would be filed and arrests executed within such a compressed timeframe without prior public indication.
