Jerome Powell has served as Chair of the Federal Reserve since February 2018. This market resolves YES only if Powell is no longer serving as Fed Chair on May 14, 2026, through resignation, removal, or other departure. The extremely low odds of 2% reflect the institutional stability of the Federal Reserve and Powell's continued tenure through numerous political and economic cycles. Powell was nominated for a second four-year term beginning in 2022 and is scheduled to serve through 2026, providing a baseline expectation that he will remain in office. Resolution requires official confirmation from the Federal Reserve that Powell has ceased serving as Chair. Historical precedent shows Fed Chairs rarely depart mid-term outside of retirement age considerations. Current market price reflects strong market belief in Powell remaining in the role through the May deadline. The odds may shift if significant political developments, health concerns, or policy disputes emerge that could alter expectations around Powell's tenure.