Jerome Powell has served as Federal Reserve Chair since February 2018, overseeing monetary policy during periods of significant economic transition, including pandemic response and inflation management. The role of Fed leadership is central to U.S. economic stability and has become increasingly political in recent years. Powell's potential departure from the Federal Reserve Board is a substantive question because the Fed chair's decisions on interest rates, quantitative easing, and inflation targets directly influence financial markets, employment, and price stability across the economy. The Federal Reserve's structure provides clear conditions for resolution. A chair or board member either holds their position or does not, making this question deterministic by year-end 2026. Current market odds at 45% for YES reflect meaningful but minority probability that Powell will no longer serve on the Board by December 31, 2026—whether through scheduled term completion, resignation, or presidential removal. This suggests traders view departure as possible but unlikely within the timeframe, pricing in both political pressure and institutional continuity. Historically, Fed chairs have served relatively stable, multi-year tenures, which supports the baseline skepticism in current odds.