Jimmy Kimmel hosts ABC's flagship late-night show, a position he has held since 2003 with strong audience loyalty and established advertiser relationships. The prediction market prices the probability of his departure—by firing or resignation—at just 7% by May 31, 2026, implying traders view him as secure in his role. His contract status, ABC's content strategy, and the broader late-night television landscape will determine whether this outcome occurs. The low YES odds reflect the relative stability of his tenure and ABC's long-term commitment to the show, though tail risks remain around network restructuring, personal circumstances, or significant professional disputes. Current pricing suggests conviction that Kimmel remains firmly positioned at ABC through May's end.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Jimmy Kimmel has hosted 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!' since 2003, first on Comedy Central and then on ABC starting in 2009, making him one of the longest-serving hosts in late-night television. His show consistently delivers strong viewership in the coveted 11:35 PM time slot and generates substantial advertising revenue for ABC and its parent company Disney. Kimmel's established rapport with celebrities, his ability to blend comedy with topical commentary, and his relevance across entertainment and political discourse have cemented his position as a cornerstone of ABC's late-night lineup. For a YES resolution by May 31, 2026, a significant event would need to trigger his departure. Potential catalysts could include network-wide cost-cutting measures at Disney, a strategic shift that deprioritizes late-night programming, a serious health issue forcing him to step back, or an unresolved dispute with network leadership over content or contract terms. Alternatively, Kimmel could choose to resign if he decides to pursue other projects, focus on personal priorities, or exit the demanding daily grind of live hosting. Several structural factors argue strongly for NO. Kimmel's contract reflects his value to the network; ABC would likely prioritize renewal given the disruption and cost of replacing an established late-night anchor. The late-night landscape has seen consolidation rather than compression, with networks viewing these shows as flagship assets and brand builders. Kimmel's political commentary and cultural relevance have deepened his relationship with progressive audiences and advertisers, making him valuable to ABC's positioning. Recent years show no signs of deteriorating viewership or advertiser exodus. Historical precedent is clear: long-serving late-night hosts like David Letterman and Conan O'Brien generally left on their own terms rather than by forced exit. Current market pricing at 7% YES reflects these structural factors—traders price a very small probability of disruption, consistent with Kimmel's institutional security.
What traders watch for
ABC's Q2 2026 earnings calls and strategic guidance on late-night programming investment
Jimmy Kimmel contract negotiations and renewal announcements, if any, during spring 2026
Any public health announcements or personal circumstance changes affecting his ability to host
Network leadership changes or cost-cutting announcements at Disney that could affect late-night budgets
Viewership trends and advertising demand for late-night television through May 2026
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves YES if Jimmy Kimmel is fired or publicly announces resignation from ABC before May 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
