Kharg Island is Iran's primary oil export terminal and a strategically critical military installation in the Persian Gulf. Located approximately 55 kilometers off the Iranian coast, the island is Iran's main gateway for petroleum exports to global markets and serves as a heavily fortified naval asset worth billions in strategic value. This prediction market examines whether control of Kharg Island will transfer out of Iranian hands by June 30, 2026. The current YES odds of 12% suggest traders assign very low probability to such a change, indicating strong confidence in Iranian retention despite regional tensions. A shift in control would require extraordinary circumstances—sustained military campaign, negotiated international agreement, or dramatic internal collapse—none of which appear probable within six months. The modest odds reflect base-case expectations around geopolitical stability in the region. Resolution depends on verifiable international news reports confirming whether Kharg Island remains under Iranian operational and administrative control through the June deadline.