Kharg Island is Iran's strategically vital oil and gas terminal in the Persian Gulf, serving as a critical petroleum export hub. The market question asks whether the island will no longer be under Iranian control by May 31, 2026. Currently trading at 9% YES odds, the market implies a 91% probability that Iran retains control through the resolution date. This reflects the island's status as firmly under Iranian sovereignty, with a relatively short timeframe for any change. Kharg Island carries geopolitical significance as a core node in Iran's oil export capacity and a focal point in regional dynamics. The island operates within contested regional waters, subject to military pressures and international scrutiny that make it relevant for participants monitoring Middle Eastern risk. The low odds suggest traders assess the risk of Iranian loss of control as minimal over the next five weeks, though escalation in regional conflict or military action could shift expectations. Active trading volume reflects ongoing interest in Iran-focused geopolitical prediction markets.