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Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's Democratic Party, remains the country's most prominent opposition figure despite mounting legal challenges spanning multiple years. The question asks whether he will be arrested before the end of 2026—a critical period as his trials progress through the judicial system. Currently priced at 11% YES odds, the market reflects trader belief that formal arrest is unlikely over the next seven months, despite ongoing investigations and indictments. The low probability may reflect several factors: South Korean legal procedure often extends over years, elected officials can have certain legal protections, and actual arrest typically follows formal conviction or specific evidentiary triggers rather than emerging early in the process. The odds trajectory will likely shift based on court rulings, verdict announcements, and any procedural developments that could accelerate or delay potential arrest. Traders appear to be pricing in the slow pace of Korean legal proceedings and viewing arrest—distinct from indictment or trial—as a lower-probability outcome before year-end.
What factors could move this market?
Lee Jae-myung rose to prominence as mayor of Seongnam, a major Seoul suburb, where he oversaw ambitious development projects including the New Administrative City (now Sejong). His tenure was marked by both infrastructure achievements and controversial land-speculation practices tied to development projects that later became the subject of legal scrutiny. After his 2022 presidential campaign loss, he became leader of the Democratic Party, making him a central figure in South Korean political opposition. The current legal landscape encompasses multiple ongoing cases: embezzlement allegations from his mayoral period, accusations related to alleged improper real estate development practices, and campaign finance investigations from his recent presidential bid. Factors pushing toward YES include potential court decisions that could trigger arrest warrants if judges determine specific legal and evidentiary standards are satisfied, an accelerated trial schedule or guilty verdict in one of his pending major cases, new evidence or credible witness testimony strengthening prosecutors' case, and judicial interpretation shifts regarding immunity or procedural protections. Factors pushing toward NO include South Korea's typically methodical judicial system with years spanning between indictment and final resolution, Lee's status as an opposition leader which may provide certain procedural or constitutional protections, the legal distinction between arrest and conviction or indictment, and historical precedent from major Korean political trials showing opposition figures often navigate extended legal processes without formal arrest. The remaining timeframe to year-end 2026 (approximately seven months) is relatively compressed for such a major legal development. The 11% odds imply market participants assess arrest as a distinct tail-risk scenario—legally possible but requiring significant acceleration of events or material unexpected legal developments. The market's confidence in the status quo suggests moderate consensus that procedural continuity dominates the timeframe.
What are traders watching for?
Court verdicts in embezzlement and campaign finance cases; guilty findings could trigger arrest warrant proceedings or custody orders.
Appeals court rulings on immunity and procedural protections; decisions may remove legal barriers to arrest warrant issuance before year-end.
New evidence or witness testimony in ongoing investigations; material developments could strengthen prosecution case for detention or arrest.
Parliamentary action or legislative changes affecting politician legal protections; shifts in immunity status could alter arrest probability significantly.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Lee Jae-myung is formally arrested before 2027-01-01. Resolution requires confirmed arrest by law enforcement, distinct from indictment or trial proceedings.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
