Pezeshkian's removal by year-end sits at 34% market probability, with $40K 24h volume and resolution Dec 31, 2026. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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Masoud Pezeshkian took office as Iran's president in August 2024 after winning a runoff election, positioning himself as a reformist committed to easing sanctions and reviving nuclear negotiations. The market is pricing a 34% probability he leaves office by December 31, 2026 — a roughly 18-month window — with the remaining 66% assuming he completes the year in his position. Iran's political system concentrates power with the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and paramilitary entities, leaving a president's tenure subject to factional pressures and succession risks. At 34% odds, traders are embedding a tail-risk premium for scenarios including health crisis, rapid political collapse, or factional intervention, while acknowledging historical precedent that most Iranian presidents serve their full terms. The $40K daily volume reflects modest but serious geopolitical interest, signaling informed traders pricing uncertainty around Iran's internal power dynamics and regional tensions through year-end.
Iran's political structure creates unusual removal scenarios. Unlike democratic systems where presidents face regular elections or established impeachment processes, Iranian presidents' tenure depends on the Supreme Leader's tolerance and the Guardian Council's support. Pezeshkian, as a reformist heart surgeon, occupies a unique position: he appealed to citizens wanting pragmatism and engagement, yet must navigate a system dominated by hardline conservatives who control the military, judiciary, and security apparatus. Several mechanisms could trigger his removal before end-2026: the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (now 87), could decide Pezeshkian's reformist direction threatens regime stability and orchestrate his removal through the Guardian Council; a succession crisis if Khamenei dies could create power vacuums where a new Supreme Leader purges rivals including a sitting president; the Guardian Council could invalidate laws or the courts could mount constitutional charges; or a health event could remove him given his age. Conversely, the NO case rests on stronger base rates. No Iranian president has been forcibly removed mid-term in the Islamic Republic era. Pezeshkian was elected by a broad coalition including reformists and pragmatists, and the Supreme Leader allowed the election, suggesting he's an acceptable compromise. His administration's handling of sanctions negotiations and economic stabilization have not yet triggered hardline backlash. Historically, Iranian factional disputes play out through elections, not mid-term removal. The market's 34% YES odds incorporate several layers: acknowledgment that Iran's succession politics are opaque and unpredictable; recognition that a health event is possible; and pricing of genuine geopolitical risks such as regional war or economic collapse that could destabilize the government. Yet the 66% NO majority reflects the view that Pezeshkian has sufficient political support to survive 18 more months, and that removing a recently elected president would spark internal resistance. The modest trading volume of $40K daily suggests this market attracts specialists in Iranian politics and geopolitical risk rather than retail speculation.
Resolves YES if Masoud Pezeshkian is no longer serving as Iran's president by December 31, 2026, due to removal, resignation, death, or constitutional vacancy. Resolves NO if he remains in office on that date.
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