MegaETH is an anticipated token launch set to occur by July 1, 2026. This market asks whether the token's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $3 billion on its launch day. FDV represents the total market value of all tokens assuming full circulation, calculated by multiplying the token price by total supply, regardless of vesting schedules or unlock timelines. The market is resolvable based on the FDV reported by major blockchain data platforms within 24 hours of the official launch event. At 5% implied probability, traders are pricing this outcome as unlikely, suggesting they expect either slower market adoption, a lower initial launch price, or market conditions that prevent rapid $3 billion valuation on day one. Comparable token launches show first-day valuations depend heavily on initial liquidity provision, community demand, and institutional participation. The low odds may also reflect uncertainty about the launch mechanics and initial token distribution. Markets like this typically see probability shifts as the launch date approaches and more information becomes available about supply dynamics.