MetaMask, the widely-used Ethereum browser extension and self-custodial wallet developed by ConsenSys, has been the subject of ongoing speculation about a potential native token launch. This market examines whether MetaMask's fully diluted valuation (FDV) would exceed $3 billion on the first day following such a token launch. The resolution date is set for January 1, 2027, at midnight UTC, giving the market nearly a year of trading before settlement. At current odds of 5% YES, market participants assign very low probability to this specific outcome. The 5% pricing reflects both the high threshold of $3 billion FDV and the uncertainty around launch timing itself. While some major DeFi and ecosystem tokens have launched with billion-dollar valuations, reaching $3 billion FDV on day one would represent an exceptionally high outcome relative to historical token launches. The low odds trajectory indicates market skepticism regarding either the likelihood of a MetaMask token launch by the deadline, or the ability to achieve such a substantial valuation if a launch does occur. This market will resolve based on official announcement of a MetaMask token and FDV data captured at exactly one day post-launch.