Modi Out by Dec 31: 8% Market-Implied Exit Odds

Narendra Modi has been India's Prime Minister since 2014, commanding decisive electoral victories in 2019 and 2024. He leads a stable National Democratic Alliance coalition with several major regional partners and maintains considerable institutional control. The current prediction market assigns only 8% implied probability that Modi will be out of office by December 31, 2026, reflecting his substantial political entrenchment and the exceptionally low likelihood of mid-term departure within this seven-month window. This market essentially prices a tail-risk scenario: a sudden major health crisis, unexpected political realignment, constitutional conflict, or unprecedented security event that could force his removal. Given Modi's commanding coalition, parliamentary supermajority, and deep institutional control, the market consensus reflects broad skepticism about near-term exit scenarios. India's political history shows mid-term removal of a sitting PM remains uncommon in modern times.

What factors could move this market?

Narendra Modi has dominated Indian politics for over a decade, building a substantial political machine and commanding deep voter loyalty across multiple demographic segments. Since his 2014 ascent, Modi has consolidated power through two decisive electoral victories and skillfully navigated coalition politics to maintain parliamentary majorities. His government commands the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with allied regional parties, ensuring strong numerical position in the Lok Sabha. Modi's political resilience stems from several structural factors: a devoted voter base, control over key state administrations, sophisticated media management, and deep institutional roots within the RSS ideological network. For Modi to exit office by December 31, 2026, an extraordinary event would need to occur. Health-related scenarios represent one category—sudden incapacity or major medical event—though Modi at 73 has maintained public vigor. Constitutional crises or legal challenges represent another category, though his government controls sufficient institutional levers to resist most such scenarios. Coalition collapse would require significant rupture with allied parties, currently unlikely given aligned political incentives. Foreign policy or security crises—border escalation, major terrorist attack—could theoretically destabilize governance but have not triggered leadership change under Modi previously. Assassination or major security incident targeting Modi represents the most speculative tail-risk category. Historically, Indian PMs have departed through electoral defeat and rare constitutional crises, with mid-term removal uncommon in the modern era. The opposition remains fragmented across Congress, regional parties, and newer formations, lacking the unified strength to force Modi out through confidence votes. The 8% market probability implies traders assign modest weight to extraordinary scenarios over the seven-month window while strongly backing continuity. This pricing aligns with major political risk assessments regarding Modi's structural stability absent black-swan events.

What are traders watching for?

• Coalition stability: watch for major state election results or defections by allied parties that could signal realignment
• Health and security: monitor any significant health events affecting Modi or major security incidents on Indian soil
• Parliamentary dynamics: track any unexpected confidence vote dynamics or constitutional disputes in the Lok Sabha
• Opposition momentum: watch whether fragmented opposition parties achieve unexpected unity, credibility, or legislative leverage
• December 31 resolution deadline: market closes at year-end; any leadership change triggers YES payout

How does this market resolve?

The market resolves YES if Narendra Modi is no longer serving as Prime Minister of India by December 31, 2026. It resolves NO if Modi remains in office through that date.

What is Polymarket Trade?

Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.

Part of our Politics prediction markets coverage. Learn the fundamentals in our how prediction markets work guide.