The Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 and has persisted despite multiple diplomatic efforts. This market measures whether a ceasefire agreement will be formally reached and implemented by June 30, 2026 — approximately 14 months from the market start date. The question remains resolvable by independent verification of official ceasefire declarations from recognized sources. At 9% YES odds, the market currently prices a ceasefire as unlikely within the specified timeframe, reflecting the deep geopolitical divisions and ongoing military engagement as of early 2026. Historical peace negotiations between the parties have faced significant obstacles, including disputes over territorial control, reparations, and security guarantees. The odds trajectory has remained relatively flat at single-digit percentages over recent weeks, suggesting consensus skepticism about near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Recent developments in international diplomacy, shifts in military momentum, or changing strategic calculations by either party could shift probabilities. Traders monitoring this market track statements from US, European, and Ukrainian leadership, as well as direct negotiations or mediation efforts involving third-party actors.