The Russia-Ukraine conflict has persisted since February 2022, with intense military operations, widespread humanitarian crises, and diplomatic efforts ebbing and flowing across multiple channels. By early 2026, the war remains active and costly, though underlying geopolitical conditions are gradually shifting toward the possibility of negotiation. This market asks whether a formal ceasefire—a mutual agreement to halt hostilities—will be reached and verified by the May 31, 2026 deadline. The 4% YES odds currently priced reflect deep market skepticism that peace negotiations will solidify into a binding agreement within the next five months. Historical precedent shows ceasefire agreements often emerge through major diplomatic breakthroughs, sustained third-party mediation from countries like the United States or international organizations, or a military stalemate forcing both sides to accept terms. A ceasefire is distinct from a comprehensive peace treaty, requiring only a halt to active fighting, not a complete political settlement. Given the current price, traders are pricing in continued conflict and low probability of a verified ceasefire agreement by May's end. The market offers valuable insight into consensus expectations around geopolitical resolution timelines and the collective weight traders assign to near-term peace prospects for this prolonged conflict.