Keir Starmer became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in July 2024, leading the Labour Party to electoral victory. This market assesses the probability of Starmer leaving office before December 31, 2026, through any mechanism: resignation, electoral defeat, or removal. The current price of 62% YES indicates substantial market expectation of a departure within this timeframe. Starmer's premiership has encountered various pressures and scrutiny, including questions related to his prior tenure as Director of Public Prosecutions from 2013 to 2018, particularly regarding the handling of serious crime cases during that period. Traders account for multiple possible exit scenarios: defeat in a called general election, backbench or coalition pressures, internal Labour Party dynamics, or voluntary resignation. The market's 62% price implies that participants view the likelihood of a leadership transition before year-end as more probable than continuous service. Political circumstances, party internal dynamics, and external events all factor into the real-time price movements and sentiment. The market resolves based solely on Starmer's status as Prime Minister through December 31, 2026, with no regard to the specific circumstances of any departure. This market provides insight into current expectations regarding UK political leadership stability and continuity of the current government.