The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical maritime chokepoint, with roughly one-third of global seaborne trade passing through daily. Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, China, and regional shipping activity have raised concerns about transit stability and insurance costs for vessel operators. A return to normal traffic by April 30 would signal either de-escalation of tensions or successful adaptation to existing constraints without further disruption to shipping schedules. The market currently prices YES at 63%, reflecting trader expectations that normalization is more likely than not by month-end. This conviction level suggests moderate confidence that either geopolitical pressures will ease or shipping will resume historical patterns despite ongoing regional risks. The 13-day resolution window makes this a short-duration geopolitical trade. The substantial 24-hour volume of $1.88 million demonstrates strong trader interest in maritime supply chain outcomes. Resolution depends on observable shipping data and major port activity levels, with market organizers tracking vessel transit times and traffic volume to confirm whether patterns have genuinely returned to established baselines by the end of April.