The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of the world's traded oil, making it one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints. Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran and regional powers have raised concerns about potential shipping disruptions and supply chain impacts. This market resolves YES if vessel traffic through the Strait returns to normal operational levels—measured by passage rates, cargo volumes, transit times, and insurance rates aligned with pre-disruption baselines—by June 30, 2026. The current YES odds at 90% reflect strong market confidence that shipping normalization is likely within the timeframe, suggesting traders expect either meaningful de-escalation of regional tensions, successful diplomatic resolution, or market adaptation through alternative routes and insurance mechanisms. The high conviction priced into these odds indicates traders view major disruption scenarios as unlikely, though some residual geopolitical risk remains. Tracking this market provides insight into broader market sentiment regarding Middle East stability, OPEC production stability, and energy security—factors that ripple across global commodity markets and inflation expectations.