Trump Out by June 30: 1% Probability — Live Election Market

Donald Trump is serving as 47th President of the United States, having taken office in January 2025. This prediction market asks whether he will cease to be president by June 30, 2026—a 29-day window from the market's current state. The 1% implied probability reflects extraordinary confidence among traders that Trump will remain in office through the resolution date. Presidential removal before term's end is extremely rare in US history, requiring either impeachment conviction by the Senate (a supermajority of 67 votes needed), voluntary resignation, or invocation of the 25th Amendment. With Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress—the House with a 222-seat majority and the Senate with 53 seats—the political barrier to removal remains historically high. The 24-hour trading volume of $20K and total liquidity of $277K indicate moderate market interest in this outcome. The near-certainty pricing suggests traders view removal as a tail-risk event contingent on unprecedented political upheaval or sudden incapacity.

What factors could move this market?

For a US president to leave office before the end of their term, three constitutional mechanisms exist in the modern framework. Impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority (67 votes) to convict and remove; the House can impeach with a simple majority, but sustained conviction is the high bar. The 25th Amendment allows removal if the Vice President and a majority of the cabinet declare the president unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office; the president can challenge this declaration, requiring a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers to override. Voluntary resignation, exemplified by Richard Nixon in 1974, remains the historical precedent for pre-term departure, though no sitting president has resigned since Nixon faced near-certain impeachment conviction. The current congressional math presents a structural barrier to removal: Republicans hold 222 of 435 House seats and 53 of 100 Senate seats. For impeachment conviction, at least 14 Republican senators would need to vote with all 47 Democrats (assuming unanimous Democratic support), a threshold not met for any conviction since Andrew Johnson in 1868. The 25th Amendment faces similar arithmetic—overriding a presidential challenge would require 67 votes in both chambers, effectively requiring supermajority defections from the president's party. Historically, no president has been removed via impeachment conviction in over 230 years of the republic, though Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton all faced impeachment proceedings. Nixon resigned before likely conviction; Johnson survived removal votes; Clinton was acquitted. The structural rarity reflects both the high threshold and impeachment's fundamentally political nature. As of early June 2026, no major impeachment proceedings are underway, and Trump's approval ratings remain in the mid-40s—similar to historical mid-term levels. His health has not been publicly questioned. Market pricing at 1% therefore prices in only extreme tail scenarios: sudden, unexpected political upheaval or unforeseen medical emergency. The tight pricing and $277K liquidity suggest high confidence in Trump's continuity through June 30.

What are traders watching for?

• Senate requires 67 votes to convict; Republicans hold 53 seats. At least 14 Republican defections needed
• No president removed via impeachment since Andrew Johnson in 1868. Structural barrier to 21st-century removal
• 25th Amendment requires VP and cabinet consensus with presidential appeal; supermajority needed to override
• Market expires June 30; only 29 days remain. No active impeachment proceedings as of June 1, 2026
• Trump's approval ratings mid-40s; no health issues publicly reported. Market prices tail-risk scenarios only

How does this market resolve?

Market resolves YES if Donald Trump is no longer serving as US President by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Removal via impeachment conviction, resignation, 25th Amendment invocation, or presidential incapacity all trigger YES resolution.