Trump removal by June 30 sits at just 1% market odds, with $168K 24h volume and resolution on June 30. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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Donald Trump took office as the 47th President in January 2026. This market resolves to YES if Trump is no longer serving as President by June 30, 2026—just 16 days away. At 1% implied odds, the market prices removal as nearly impossible, reflecting both historical precedent and current political realities. Removal would require one of several extraordinary scenarios: conviction on impeachment charges (unlikely given Republican Senate control), incapacity due to serious illness or death (rare in a two-week window), or voluntary resignation (contrary to Trump's public commitments and historical pattern). The 2024-2026 period showed Trump successfully navigating previous removal pressures under different Congressional control. The market's tight pricing reflects Trump's well-known determination to serve out his full four-year term. With $168K in daily volume and $731K in liquidity, traders show little conviction in a near-term exit scenario. Recent news and polling show no significant pressure toward removal.
Donald Trump's political career has repeatedly survived predictions of removal or disqualification. During his first presidency (2017-2021), Trump faced two impeachment trials—one for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress in December 2019, and a second for incitement of insurrection in January 2021. Both resulted in acquittals with Republican-controlled Senates. As of June 2026, Trump is in his second presidential term, having won the 2024 election. The sixteen-day window until market resolution means removal must occur through limited channels: (1) impeachment and conviction requiring 67 Senate votes (mathematically impossible with Republican control); (2) the 25th Amendment, typically used only for incapacity and requiring Cabinet or congressional action (no current medical emergency indicated); (3) voluntary resignation (contrary to Trump's public commitments); (4) death or serious incapacity (statistically low risk in a two-week period). Theoretical catalysts for YES—a dramatic health crisis, unprecedented scandal with immediate Congressional traction, or constitutional crisis—all remain speculative and would need to trigger Congressional action in just 16 days. Historical precedent strongly supports the market consensus: no sitting U.S. President has ever been removed by impeachment (Andrew Johnson came closest in 1868 but was acquitted by one Senate vote). Modern Secret Service protections and medical care further reduce removal risk. Factors supporting NO are overwhelming: Trump's party controls the Senate, the timeframe statistically reduces removal-triggering events, Trump's public statements affirm his commitment to serve fully, and political observers across ideologies view removal as off the table in the immediate term. The market's 1% pricing reflects a consensus so strong that removal is effectively priced as a 'black swan' event—theoretically possible but so unlikely that odds barely capture it.
The market resolves YES if Trump is no longer serving as 47th President by June 30, 2026, through any cause (removal, resignation, death, incapacity). Resolution occurs at market close on June 30 based on official confirmation of status change.
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