Will Donald Trump be removed from the U.S. presidency by May 31, 2026? Current odds: 0% YES. Real-time prediction market tracking his tenure.
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Donald Trump's continued tenure as U.S. President is the subject of this short-window prediction market, which resolves on May 31, 2026. The market asks whether Trump will be out of office by that date—through resignation, removal, incapacity, or other constitutional means. With YES odds hovering at 0%, traders assign essentially zero probability to such an event occurring within the remaining two weeks of May. This reflects the political consensus that no mechanism for removing or replacing a sitting president operates on a two-week timeline under normal circumstances. Impeachment requires months of proceedings, the 25th Amendment involves lengthy deliberation and cabinet agreement, and resignation would contradict Trump's stated intentions. The market's pricing implies traders see this as a technical outcome—possible only in scenarios involving sudden health crisis, voluntary departure, or extraordinary constitutional procedures. The lack of active trading volume on the YES side versus the substantial $590k liquidity on the NO side underscores the near-certainty traders assign to Trump remaining in office through May 31.
Donald Trump's 2024 election victory and subsequent presidency have been a focal point of both political and market attention. As of May 2026, he holds the office of U.S. President with Republican control of Congress. The prediction market on Trump's removal before May 31 operates within a two-week window—an extraordinarily short timeframe for any formal change in executive authority. To understand the 0% YES odds, one must consider both the mechanical barriers to removal and the political landscape. Impeachment, the most discussed removal mechanism, requires passage through the House (simple majority) and conviction in the Senate (two-thirds supermajority). With Republicans controlling both chambers, impeachment for policy disagreements or partisan reasons is implausible. The 25th Amendment, which allows removal due to presidential incapacity, requires the Vice President and a majority of cabinet members to agree Trump is unable to discharge his duties—a step that would signal severe health crisis or cognitive decline. There have been no public reports suggesting such a condition exists. Resignation, while technically possible, contradicts Trump's demonstrated resilience and stated commitment to his presidency. Historical precedent shows only one U.S. President (Richard Nixon in 1974) chose to resign, and that came after months of escalating political and legal pressure following Watergate. No serving president has been removed via the 25th Amendment, and impeachment-conviction of any president remains historically rare. Recent political news cycles have focused on Trump's policy agenda and re-election positioning rather than any removal scenario. The market's 0% YES pricing reflects this structural reality: within fourteen days, no credible pathway to Trump's departure exists given current congressional alignment, reported presidential health, and historical precedent. Traders willing to stake on YES are essentially pricing a black-swan event—sudden, unexpected, and unprecedented. The high liquidity on the NO side ($590k+) versus dormant YES trading indicates consensus conviction rather than active disagreement; most traders see this as an academic exercise rather than a live question.
The market resolves YES if Donald Trump is out of office by 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2026, through any means (resignation, removal, incapacity, death, or constitutional procedure). It resolves NO if Trump remains the sitting U.S. President at that time.
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