This market tracks whether the United States will obtain Iranian enriched uranium by December 31, 2026. The question relates to ongoing diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran around nuclear capabilities, particularly under the Trump administration's geopolitical strategy. Enriched uranium is a critical material for nuclear technology, and international control of such materials is a central issue in nuclear non-proliferation frameworks. The current 39% odds suggest traders view such an outcome as unlikely but with material probability, possibly reflecting expectations around diplomatic negotiations, sanctions policies, or verification protocols. The market resolves positively if credible reporting confirms the US has acquired Iranian enriched uranium through any means—whether by diplomatic agreement, international inspection, seizure, or other verified transfer. Historically, uranium enrichment has been a focal point in US-Iran relations, with international agencies monitoring capabilities closely. The odds trajectory may shift based on diplomatic announcements, sanctions developments, or progress in ongoing negotiations. This market captures trader expectations about the trajectory of US-Iran relations and nuclear policy over the next nine months.